Puree diced tomatoes and juice, onion, garlic, and sugar in a food processor. Transfer tomato mixture to a large heavy-bottomed stockpot. Add vinegar, 1 cup water, the dry mustard, nutmeg, allspice, chili powder, orange zest, orange juice, espresso, bay leaf, and habanero chile.
Bring mixture to a boil over medium heat. Reduce heat; simmer, stirring occasionally until thickened, about 50 minutes.
Remove chile. Puree half or whole chile (depending on desired heat) with 1 cup ketchup in the food processor. Return ketchup to pot; stir until well blended. Season with salt and pepper. Let cool completely. Ketchup can be refrigerated in an airtight container, up to 2 weeks.
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